Election Bias: Comparing Polls and Twitter in the 2016 U.S. Election
نویسندگان
چکیده
While the polls have been the most trusted source for election predictions for decades, in the recent presidential election they were called inaccurate and biased. How inaccurate were the polls in this election and can social media beat the polls as an accurate election predictor? Polls from several news outlet and sentiment analysis on Twitter data were used, in conjunction with the results of the election, to answer this question and outline further research on the best method for predicting the outcome of future election.
منابع مشابه
Disentangling Bias and Variance in Election Polls
It is well known among researchers and practitioners that election polls su↵er from a variety of sampling and non-sampling errors, often collectively referred to as total survey error. Reported margins of error typically only capture sampling variability, and in particular, generally ignore non-sampling errors in defining the target population (e.g., errors due to uncertainty in who will vote)....
متن کاملDigital Trace Data in the Study of Public Opinion
In this article, we examine the relationship between metrics documenting politics-related Twitter activity with election results and trends in opinion polls. Various studies have proposed the possibility of inferring public opinion based on digital trace data collected on Twitter and even the possibility to predict election results based on aggregates of mentions of political actors. Yet, a sys...
متن کاملSam Wang
Sam Wang is a pioneer in using statistical methods to analyze U.S. presidential election polls. In this election season interview with Neuron, he discusses diagnosing partisan gerrymandering, his research on the cerebellum, and how he analyzes polls with high accuracy.
متن کاملPredicting the 2011 Dutch Senate Election Results with Twitter
To what extend can one use Twitter in opinion polls for political elections? Merely counting Twitter messages mentioning political party names is no guarantee for obtaining good election predictions. By improving the quality of the document collection and by performing sentiment analysis, predictions based on entity counts in tweets can be considerably improved, and become nearly as good as tra...
متن کاملPolling bias and undecided voter allocations: US Presidential elections, 2004 - 2016
Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they d...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- CoRR
دوره abs/1701.06232 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2017